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‘No change’: Biden’s debate performance had ‘barely any impact’ on 2024 race, report finds

‘No change’: Biden’s debate performance had ‘barely any impact’ on 2024 race, report finds

On the contrary Hundreds of articles in the New York Times and countless others in the media and eight House Democrats A new Northeastern University researcher who has declared that Joe Biden should end his reelection campaign says the President’s performance in the June 27 debate had “virtually no impact” on voter preferences. to work finds.

“The report, led by David Lazer, University Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Computer Science at Northeastern, finds that the debate has little or no impact on people’s voting choices. Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the dangers of making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to the media’s interpretation of data,” he reports. Northeast Global NewsPublished by the university.

“Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very small change that was statistically completely insignificant, as if that was evidence of a shift toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. “I hope reporters look at that and say, ‘Maybe we should be careful about over-interpreting noise as a real signal.’”

“The net result is not a move away from Biden,” Professor Lazar said.

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Of those polled who said they were Biden supporters before the debate, 94% said they would continue to support the president, but only 86% of those who said they supported Trump before the debate said they would continue to do so.

“Biden appears to have a better handle on his people than Trump,” Lazar added.

“Of those who said they would vote for Biden before the debate, 1% have shifted to Trump, while 3% have switched from Trump to Biden,” Northeastern Global News reported, examining “very small changes” between the candidates.

“Similarly, respondents who said they were unsure who they would vote for before the debate were slightly more likely to favor Biden after the debate.”

A small percentage of voters who indicated support for either Biden or Trump prior to the debate shifted toward the third-party candidate, but this was almost entirely offset by third-party candidate supporters shifting toward Biden or Trump after the debate.

“Trump was convicted of a bunch of crimes,” Lazer told Northeastern Global News. “His impact on the polls was zero. Biden had a debate that most people said proved he was too old. Pollsters said, ‘Yeah, I saw that. He’s too old. I’m still voting for him.’ The numbers don’t change at all.”

The report examined responses from 1,262 “repeat respondents” across all 50 states and was conducted from June 16 to July 5. The study is titled: “No Change – Assessing the Short-Term Impact of the Presidential Debate on Voter Preferences.”

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